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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Projections for VRINGO: VRNG After Settlement or Trial

VHC Chart from 2009 to 2011

VHC is most similar company to VRNG in terms of previous market cap, suing a very large entrenched player in tech.

Shares of VHC were as low as 1.40 in 2009.

Official settlement was announced in June 2010 as seen in article above and confirmation of validity of patents by USPTO.

New VHC Lawsuit Against Apple from VHC is Pending

Now what do you ask this means for VRNG?

We are at a midway point for the shares vis a vis a possible settlement or jury trial beginning in about 2 weeks.

Upon a verdict of $1-2 billion WITHOUT willful infringement, this translates into a share price of about  15-40$ per share just simply adding cash onto the balance sheet.

With willful infringement we can be looking at higher prices sometime soon.

There may or may not be a settlement but regardless risk is low compared to major rewards.

Would recommend buying more shares at 2.5-2.75 range.

This is a very high stakes case, google is doing whatever it can to delay and obfuscate the facts as can be seen from the hundreds of useless motions filed.

It is also extremely rare for established older patents to be thrown out as Google is trying.

If this does not work they have very little defense other than that being some claims of different algorithms which they try to keep hidden from the public at large.

Keep in mind this does not factor in at all claims against ZTE or other likely infringers such as Cisco or Juniper which make similiar products.

Each of these settlements or trials will probably not be resolved till as with VHC MSFT case, patents were upheld by USPTO.

These ZTE claims can be worth upwards of an additional 100-300$ million or so on balance sheet.

Feel free to comment on your feedback.

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