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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

AppleGrandCentral.com - Apple Could Be at MORE RISK Than Anticipated if Recession Lies Ahead

Apple Could Be at MORE RISK Than Anticipated if Recession Lies Ahead

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If we do enter into a strong economic recession or even a period of lack luster spending, then Apple will likely face growth hurdles; which would lead to declines in the stock. A repeat of the 2008 and 2009 market declines would mean a likely 50-60% decline in share price or $228 per share, or Apple shares at roughly $152.
The one good thing is that Apple's January 2013 puts are not that much more expensive compared to the SPY puts. January 2013 $380 puts cost $61.75 or 16.25% of the stock price while January 2013 $119 puts SPY cost $15.79 or 13.26% of the stock price. Comparable puts in Amazon cost 18.54%.
Since Apple puts do not cost that much more in premium than SPY puts it is much less complicated to simply buy Apple puts versus trying to hedge and correlate. The one added benefit of buying Apple puts versus SPY puts is that you get protection if Apple starts to fall out of favor.
Some things that could cause Apple to fall out of favor are: Steve Jobs abruptly leaving the company, a highly touted product fails upon launch, growth slows down in existing products with no new highly touted products to boost results or a combination of all three."

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